This market asks whether the U.S. dollar's share of allocated global foreign-exchange reserves will fall below 50% by the end of 2029, as measured by IMF COFER data. The dollar's share stood at 56.77% in Q4 2025, down from 57.80% in Q4 2024, continuing a long-term decline from 71.5% in 2001. However, the decline has slowed to roughly 0.6 percentage points per year in recent years, remaining in the 56-58% range since 2022. At this pace, the dollar would not reach 50% until approximately 2031-2032. A sustained acceleration to roughly 2.25 pp/year would be needed to hit the 50% threshold by Q4 2029. While geopolitical developments could accelerate de-dollarization, the current trajectory and historical stability of the dollar's reserve role support a low probability that the 50% threshold is breached within the specified timeframe.
