This market asks whether U.S. federal debt held by the public will exceed 110% of GDP at the end of fiscal year 2028 (September 30, 2028). The Congressional Budget Office's baseline projections are the primary reference: the January 2025 outlook shows debt rising from 100% of GDP in FY2025 to 107.2% by FY2029, while the prior June 2024 outlook projected approximately 109% by FY2028. Both projections fall short of the 110% threshold, suggesting the baseline case leans toward NO. However, the market prices in tail risks—unexpected fiscal legislation, economic shocks, or revenue shortfalls could push debt higher than baseline forecasts. The current quote reflects a meaningful but not dominant probability of exceeding 110%, consistent with the uncertainty around fiscal outcomes nearly three years out.
The national debt held by public surpassed the size of the economy in early 2026, reaching levels not seen since World War II. CBO projects this will reach 107% by 2029.
The Congressional Budget Office's January 2025 outlook projects federal debt held by public will reach 107.2% of GDP in FY2029, exceeding the 106% record set in 1946.
