Part of the How far does U.S. democratic backsliding go by the end of 2029? topic →
This market asks whether V-Dem classifies the US as an electoral autocracy in any annual report through 2029. The 2025 data shows the US classified as Electoral Democracy (ED+), not electoral autocracy. However, the US Liberal Democracy Index fell 24% year-over-year (from 0.75 to 0.57), the Electoral Democracy Index dropped from 0.84 to 0.74, and the US fell from 20th to 51st globally — described by V-Dem as 'deteriorating at unprecedented speed.' Crossing from Electoral Democracy to Electoral Autocracy is a major classification shift that has not yet occurred, but the rapid decline makes this a non-trivial probability by 2029.
