Part of the When will the 12-month global mean temperature first exceed 1.75°C above pre-industrial? topic →
This market asks whether any 12-month window exceeds 1.75°C by end of 2035. With the 12-month running mean already reaching 1.75°C in early 2025 and sustained warming pushing temperatures higher each decade, the probability of exceeding 1.75°C in any 12-month window through 2035 is extremely high. The long-term 1.75°C threshold (multi-year average) is projected around 2033-2036, making the 12-month exceedance virtually certain by 2035. Current quote of 50 is far too low.
Global Temperature Trend Monitor now shows 1.5°C threshold reachable by 2029, down from 2045 projection in 2015
World Meteorological Organization annual to decadal climate update predicts near-record temperatures through 2029
ERA5 shows January 2025 at 1.75°C above pre-industrial, the 18th month in 19 to exceed 1.5°C
Will the 12-month global mean temperature exceed 1.75°C above pre-industrial by the end of 2031?
Will the 12-month global mean temperature exceed 1.75°C above pre-industrial by the end of 2028?
If global fossil CO2 emissions have not peaked by 2028, will the 12-month global mean temperature exceed 1.9°C above pre-industrial by the end of 2035?
