Part of the When will the 12-month global mean temperature first exceed 1.75°C above pre-industrial? topic →
This market asks whether any 12-month running mean exceeds 1.75°C above the 1850-1900 baseline by end of 2028. The research shows the 12-month running mean already reached 1.75°C in January 2025, and James Hansen projects it reaching 1.7°C in 2027. With El Niño conditions likely developing in late 2026, the probability of at least one 12-month window exceeding 1.75°C before 2029 is high. The current quote of 12 significantly underprices this likelihood.
Global Temperature Trend Monitor now shows 1.5°C threshold reachable by 2029, down from 2045 projection in 2015
World Meteorological Organization annual to decadal climate update predicts near-record temperatures through 2029
ERA5 shows January 2025 at 1.75°C above pre-industrial, the 18th month in 19 to exceed 1.5°C
Will the 12-month global mean temperature exceed 1.75°C above pre-industrial by the end of 2031?
Will the 12-month global mean temperature exceed 1.75°C above pre-industrial by the end of 2035?
If global fossil CO2 emissions have not peaked by 2028, will the 12-month global mean temperature exceed 1.9°C above pre-industrial by the end of 2035?
