If global fossil CO2 emissions have not peaked by 2028, will the 12-month global mean temperature exceed 1.9°C above pre-industrial by the end of 2035?

This conditional market asks whether, assuming global fossil CO2 emissions have NOT peaked by 2028 (the precondition), the 12-month running global mean temperature will exceed 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline by the end of 2035. The precondition is highly likely to be met: Global Carbon Budget 2025 shows emissions at a record 38.1 GtCO2 in 2025, up 1.1% from 2024, with no peak in sight. The highest annual total through 2026 is 38.1 GtCO2; for a 2028 peak, emissions would need to fall at least 1% below that, which current trajectories do not support. On the consequent: the 12-month ERA5 average (Dec 2024–Nov 2025) stands at 1.49°C, with 2024 the first calendar year at 1.60°C. The remaining 1.5°C carbon budget will be exhausted by ~2029-2030 at current rates, and Climate Action Tracker projects 1.9°C median warming under optimistic net-zero scenarios. Given continued emission growth and the physics of accumulated CO2, crossing 1.9°C in a 12-month window by end-2035 appears highly probable if the precondition holds.