This market asks whether global fossil CO2 emissions in 2027 will fall below the 2024 level of 37.8 GtCO2. Current data shows emissions hit a record 38.1 GtCO2 in 2025, up 1.1% from 2024, with the IEA confirming emissions continued rising by ~0.4% in 2025 to over 38 GtCO2. Under current policy scenarios, projections show emissions remaining around 38-40 GtCO2 through the early 2030s before slowly declining. For 2027 to be lower than 2024, emissions would need to reverse course and drop by at least 0.3 GtCO2 from 2025 levels—a significant trend reversal not reflected in any official projection. The absence of external market sentiment for this specific question means there is no crowd consensus to anchor to, but the structural trajectory of rising emissions makes a decline unlikely.
Carbon pricing revenues reached a record high in 2025 as governments expanded emissions trading systems and carbon tax regimes worldwide
Global Carbon Project reports 38.1 GtCO2 emissions from fossil fuels in 2025, a 1.1% increase from 2024, marking a new all-time high
