Part of the When will the 12-month global mean temperature first exceed 1.75°C above pre-industrial? topic →
This market asks whether the 12-month running mean global temperature will exceed 1.75°C above pre-industrial by end of 2031. With the 1.5°C threshold now projected for May 2029, there would be approximately 2 additional years of warming to reach 1.75°C — a 0.25°C jump. Historical warming rates are approximately 0.2°C per decade, making this timeline somewhat aggressive. However, the combination of sustained anthropogenic warming and potential El Niño events during this period provides a meaningful chance of reaching 1.75°C by 2031. The quote of 65 reflects a probable but not certain outcome.
Global Temperature Trend Monitor now shows 1.5°C threshold reachable by 2029, down from 2045 projection in 2015
With 1.5°C expected in 2029, 1.75°C would follow in the early 2030s, making 2031 a likely exceedance year
World Meteorological Organization annual to decadal climate update predicts near-record temperatures through 2029
ERA5 shows January 2025 at 1.75°C above pre-industrial, the 18th month in 19 to exceed 1.5°C
Historical peak shows the trajectory toward 1.75°C in the 2030s
Will the 12-month global mean temperature exceed 1.75°C above pre-industrial by the end of 2035?
Will the 12-month global mean temperature exceed 1.75°C above pre-industrial by the end of 2028?
If global fossil CO2 emissions have not peaked by 2028, will the 12-month global mean temperature exceed 1.9°C above pre-industrial by the end of 2035?
