When will the 12-month global mean temperature first exceed 1.75°C above pre-industrial?
3 outcomes·Resolves in 3y·$19K volume
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Will the 12-month global mean temperature exceed 1.75°C above pre-industrial by the end of 2035?
97%
$8.4K · 1 trades
Feb 1, 12 AM GMT
Will the 12-month global mean temperature exceed 1.75°C above pre-industrial by the end of 2031?
88%
$6.2K · 1 trades
Feb 1, 12 AM GMT
Will the 12-month global mean temperature exceed 1.75°C above pre-industrial by the end of 2028?
65%
$4.2K · 1 trades
Feb 1, 12 AM GMT
- Shared across 3 marketsCopernicus accelerates 1.5°C threshold projection to May 20297mo ago
Global Temperature Trend Monitor now shows 1.5°C threshold reachable by 2029, down from 2045 projection in 2015
- Shared across 3 marketsWMO forecasts 86% chance of 1.5°C exceedance in next five years1y ago
World Meteorological Organization annual to decadal climate update predicts near-record temperatures through 2029
- Shared across 3 marketsJanuary 2025 records 1.75°C above pre-industrial1y ago
ERA5 shows January 2025 at 1.75°C above pre-industrial, the 18th month in 19 to exceed 1.5°C