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Which party will control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?

3 outcomes·Resolves in 2mo·$20K volume
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Will Democratic control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?

67%

Will Split control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?

26%

Will Republican control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?

8%
  1. Shared across 3 markets
    Prediction markets and forecasts increasingly favor a Democratic Senate flip2d ago

    Oct. 23 projections favor Democratic Senate control and the House, making a Republican sweep unlikely.

  2. Shared across 3 markets
    NYT/Siena poll gives Democrats an 11-point lead on the named-candidate House ballot4d ago

    The October 21 survey also found a five-point Democratic lead across states holding Senate races and Trump approval at 36% approve to 59% disapprove; it indicates a favorable environment, not a settled election outcome.

  3. Shared across 3 markets
    Silver Bulletin reports a cycle-high Democratic generic-ballot lead and record-low Trump net approval4d ago

    The October 21 update put the generic-ballot average at D+9.2 (D+9.7 with a likely-voter adjustment) and Trump net approval at −24.3.

  4. Shared across 3 markets
    October 9 joint forecast puts Democratic unified control ahead, with split control still substantial16d ago

    Call the Map's joint simulations assign 51% to Democratic control of both chambers, 30% to a Democratic House/Republican Senate split, 16% to Republican unified control, and 3% to the opposite split.

  5. Shared across 3 markets
    Silver Bulletin's October 8 FLIPR update reaches new highs for Democratic chamber-control odds17d ago

    Newsweek reports the model assigned Democrats 74.5% to win both chambers, against 6.7% for Republicans to retain both; the October 9 model update separately says Democrats' House odds are nearly 94%.