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Which party will control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?

3 outcomes·Resolves in 7mo·$0 volume
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Will Split control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?

52%

Will Democratic control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?

38%

Will Republican control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?

10%
  1. Will Split control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?
    Generic ballot widens to D+6.9, best margin of cycle8d ago

    Silver Bulletin reports Democrats' lead is now stronger than at the same point in 2018 (D+6.5), with Republicans' support declining from 42.3% to 41.6% through May 2026

  2. Will Split control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?
    Polymarket Senate odds shift to GOP 52% / Dem 49%8d ago

    Prediction markets now show Republicans with a slight edge in the Senate, reflecting the challenging map for Democrats who need to flip 4 seats

  3. Shared across 3 markets
    Generic ballot lead for Democrats reaches D+6.6 in Silver Bulletin average9d ago

    NYT/Siena poll shows D+11 environment; Data for Progress finds D+8; comparable to 2018 wave

  4. Shared across 3 markets
    Trump approval rating hits second-term low amid Iran war economic fallout13d ago

    Fox News poll shows 39% approve/61% disapprove; only 24% approve of handling of inflation

  5. Shared across 3 markets
    Graham Platner leads Susan Collins by 7 points in Maine Senate race14d ago

    Pan Atlantic Research poll shows Platner (D) at 48%, Collins (R) at 41% among likely voters