Part of the Which party will control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections? topic →
This market asks whether Congress will be split - one party controlling the House while the other controls the Senate - after the 2026 midterm elections. External sentiment shows two split scenarios: R Senate/D House at 40.5% and D Senate/R House at 1.7%, totaling 42.2% for split control. The current quote of 45 is slightly above external sentiment. With Democrats heavily favored in the House (84.5%) and Republicans slightly favored in the Senate (55.5%), split control remains the most likely outcome, driven by the structural advantage Republicans have in the Senate map this cycle. The quote moves down to 41 to better align with the external 42.2% probability.
Maine Democratic Party must select replacement candidate to challenge incumbent Susan Collins
Democratic nominee quits; Democrats set to pick new candidate against incumbent Susan Collins
Silver Bulletin average shows D+6.3 on generic ballot, up slightly from D+6.1. Most polls show D+5 to D+11 range.
Economist/YouGov poll shows 35% approve, 61% disapprove (net -25). I&I/TIPP shows 38% approve, 54% disapprove (net -16).
