Part of the Which party will control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections? topic →
This market asks whether the House and Senate will end up controlled by different parties after the 2026 midterms. The latest joint forecast assigns about a one-in-three chance to split control, principally a Democratic House paired with a Republican Senate, while external sentiment shows Democrats favored for the House and a competitive Senate. Other models place substantially more weight on a Democratic sweep, so divided control remains plausible but is not the leading outcome. The forecast picture is unsettled and does not represent certified results.
Call the Map's joint simulations assign 51% to Democratic control of both chambers, 30% to a Democratic House/Republican Senate split, 16% to Republican unified control, and 3% to the opposite split.
Newsweek reports the model assigned Democrats 74.5% to win both chambers, against 6.7% for Republicans to retain both; the October 9 model update separately says Democrats' House odds are nearly 94%.
Silver Bulletin said Democrats were favored to retake both chambers; Scrutinel put a Democratic sweep at 55% and divided control at 35%, while direct market projections put a Democratic sweep near 65% and a Republican Senate/Democratic House outcome near 28%.
On Oct. 6 Cook moved Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss Up, New Hampshire from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, and North Carolina from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. CNN had reported the day before that Kansas newly entered its top Senate flip-race list.
The Republican Senate-aligned super PAC paused future North Carolina advertising and shifted resources elsewhere amid polls showing Roy Cooper ahead of Michael Whatley, a strategic indication of how the party is allocating resources across its Senate-defense map.
