Part of the Which party will control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections? topic →
This market asks whether Democrats will control both the House and Senate after the 2026 midterm elections. External sentiment shows Democrats with an 84.5% chance to win the House and 45.5% chance to win the Senate. The Polymarket balance-of-power market prices Democratic unified control at 44.5%, notably higher than the current quote of 40. The gap likely reflects the market's view that Senate chances have improved slightly or that House and Senate outcomes are correlated. The Maine Senate race is critical - Democrats are 65.5% favorites there after Platner's withdrawal. Given the strong generic ballot (D+6.3) and Trump's underwater approval, Democrats have a strong but not certain path to unified control. The quote moves up to 44 to align with external sentiment.
Maine Democratic Party must select replacement candidate to challenge incumbent Susan Collins
Democratic nominee quits; Democrats set to pick new candidate against incumbent Susan Collins
Silver Bulletin average shows D+6.3 on generic ballot, up slightly from D+6.1. Most polls show D+5 to D+11 range.
Economist/YouGov poll shows 35% approve, 61% disapprove (net -25). I&I/TIPP shows 38% approve, 54% disapprove (net -16).
