Part of the Which party will control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections? topic →
Republican control of Congress requires Republicans to win both the House and Senate. The House remains highly unlikely for Republicans given the generic ballot at D+6.9 (Democrats at 48.5% vs Republicans at 41.6%) and external markets pricing Democratic control at 82%. The Senate gives Republicans a narrow edge at 53.5%, but this is insufficient to overcome the House deficit. Combining roughly 18% Republican House probability with 53.5% Senate probability yields approximately 10% for unified GOP control. Trump approval at 39% and economic concerns from Iran war fallout continue to drag Republican prospects.
NYT/Siena poll shows D+11 environment; Data for Progress finds D+8; comparable to 2018 wave
Fox News poll shows 39% approve/61% disapprove; only 24% approve of handling of inflation
Pan Atlantic Research poll shows Platner (D) at 48%, Collins (R) at 41% among likely voters
Rep. Mike Collins and Derek Dooley advance to June 16 runoff; incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff runs unopposed
Latest polling shows Democrats with modest lead in generic congressional ballot, consistent with historical midterm patterns for out-of-power party
