Part of the Which party will control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections? topic →
This market asks whether Republicans will control both the House and Senate after the 2026 midterm elections. External sentiment shows Republicans with a 15.5% chance to win the House (down slightly from prior estimates) and 55.5% chance to win the Senate. The combined GOP unified control probability on Polymarket's balance-of-power market is exactly 15.5%, matching the current quote of 15. The Maine Senate race remains the key uncertainty after Graham Platner's withdrawal, with Democrats now favored at 65.5% to win that seat. Given the strong Democratic lead in the generic ballot (D+6.3) and President Trump's low approval ratings (37-40%), Republican unified control remains a long shot. The quote stays at 15, aligned with external sentiment.
Maine Democratic Party must select replacement candidate to challenge incumbent Susan Collins
Democratic nominee quits; Democrats set to pick new candidate against incumbent Susan Collins
Silver Bulletin average shows D+6.3 on generic ballot, up slightly from D+6.1. Most polls show D+5 to D+11 range.
Economist/YouGov poll shows 35% approve, 61% disapprove (net -25). I&I/TIPP shows 38% approve, 54% disapprove (net -16).
