Will recursive self-improvement be observed in AI by 2030?

This market asks whether a publicly verifiable AI system will demonstrate full recursive self-improvement (RSI) by end of 2030 — defined as autonomously performing the complete research, ideation, implementation, and validation cycle to create a more capable version of itself without human intervention in the core R&D process, including modifying its own codebase, architecture, or training objectives to achieve measurable improvements in general intelligence. Recent developments (DIY self-improving AI gaining traction, ongoing China-US competition, Anthropic warnings) show accelerating progress, but no system has yet crossed the threshold of full RSI that improves general intelligence rather than performing narrow, domain-specific optimization. The current quote of 62 reflects the crowd's view that RSI is more likely than not by 2030, which aligns with expert timelines shortening significantly and major investments flowing into recursive self-improvement research. External sentiment is not available for this specific RSI question.