This market asks whether Xavier Becerra will be elected Governor of California in November 2026. The PPIC's July 2026 poll shows Becerra leading Steve Hilton 61% to 36% among likely voters — a 25-point margin that has widened from earlier polls. Becerra leads across all demographic groups and geographic regions. External prediction markets price Becerra's win probability at approximately 94%, with over $1.6 million in trading volume on this specific outcome. The current quote of 94 aligns closely with external market sentiment. Key risks include Becerra withdrawing before the general election, which would resolve the market to NO per the rules. The race remains heavily favoring Becerra in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by 20 points and where the Democratic candidate has consolidated significant donor support including a shift of major Los Angeles real estate donors after the primary.
PPIC poll shows Becerra leading Hilton 61% to 36% among likely voters, widening his lead from previous polls. Becerra leads across all demographics: age, gender, homeownership, income, race/ethnicity, and all major regions.
Rick Caruso, Jeff Worthe, Kilroy Realty and other LA real estate executives redirect campaign funds to Becerra after Matt Mahan fails to make general election
Steve Hilton courts Latino voters with economic message tying Democratic policies to cost of living challenges. Analysis questions whether Hilton can overcome party's low Latino support despite his outreach efforts.
Business group endorsement gives Becerra boost; Hilton attacks CalChamber as out of touch
UC Berkeley IGS poll shows Becerra leading Hilton 52%-31% among registered voters; Kreate Strategies poll shows 58%-33%
