Will the US CPI year-over-year inflation rate reach 3.5% or higher in any month of 2026?

This market asks whether US CPI year-over-year inflation reaches 3.5% or higher in any month of 2026. The April 2026 CPI data released on May 12, 2026 showed inflation at 3.8% YoY, exceeding the 3.5% threshold. This was the highest inflation rate since May 2023, driven primarily by energy costs jumping 17.9% annually (gasoline up 28.4%) amid the Iran conflict. The market's condition has already been satisfied by April's reading, meaning the outcome is effectively determined for YES. While a US-Iran ceasefire was established in April potentially moderating energy prices going forward, this does not affect the fact that the threshold has already been crossed. Trading Economics forecasts inflation to reach 3.9% by end of Q2 2026, suggesting further upside potential, but the market is already resolved.