Will the unionization rate among construction workers in Southern California increase by at least 15% over the next 12 months?

This market asks whether the unionization rate among construction workers in Southern California (LA-Long Beach-Anaheim, Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, and San Diego-Carlsbad MSAs) will increase by at least 15% over the 12 months following the baseline period ending May 7, 2027. The baseline rates are: LA-Long Beach-Anaheim at 11% (38,300 members), Riverside-San Bernardino at 12% (18,800 members), and San Diego-Carlsbad at 17% (15,600 members). A 15% increase would require rates of approximately 12.65%, 13.8%, and 19.55% respectively. The research confirms that California construction union rates hit a record low of 12.5% in 2024, with union membership down 21% year-over-year and 29% since 2019. While the LA Convention Center expansion ($1.4B project with 7,445 union jobs) and the HACLA workforce partnership represent positive developments for union construction employment, these are single projects or long-term pathways too gradual to lift overall unionization rates by 15% across all three MSAs within 12 months. The structural challenges of non-union contractor growth and ongoing decline in union density persist. No external sentiment data exists for this niche market, and no 2026 data has yet been released to update the baseline.