Will the S&P 500 close more than 40% below its all-time high at any point through 2028?

This market asks whether the S&P 500 will close more than 40% below its all-time high (7,609.78 as of June 2, 2026) at any point through 2028 — a threshold of approximately 4,566. External prediction markets show the S&P staying above 6,000 through year-end 2026 is the consensus (below 6,000 at 11.5%), with short-term low targets like $6,500 at just 5.3% and $6,700 at 8%. Major bank forecasts remain bullish (Goldman 8,000, Morgan Stanley 8,300), and while J.P. Morgan assigns 35% recession probability, even a recession would not typically produce a 40% drawdown. Historical crashes of that magnitude (Great Depression 86%, GFC 57%, Dot-Com 49%) require severe economic crises not currently anticipated. The quote stays at 10, reflecting the low probability of such an extreme decline given current bullish sentiment and elevated but not record valuations (CAPE 41 vs. 32 average).