This market asks whether the next IPCC assessment (AR7, expected ~2029-2030) will conclude an AMOC collapse before 2100 is "likely" (≥66% probability) or stronger. The current IPCC position (AR6, 2021) assesses such a collapse as "unlikely" with medium confidence—a downgrade from AR5's "high confidence" that collapse would not occur before 2100. Recent developments include a 2024 open letter from 44 climate scientists warning the risk has been underestimated, and 2025-2026 research suggesting higher sensitivity to meltwater influx. However, the IPCC typically requires strong scientific consensus before upgrading to "likely" language, and AR7 is not expected until at least 2029. The quote remains low given the substantial gap between current IPCC language and the "likely" threshold the market requires.
January 2026 preprint using high-resolution modeling indicates AMOC collapse may be significantly more likely than previous simulations, citing higher sensitivity to meltwater influx.
Research published in Environmental Research Letters (2025) found AMOC shutdown would occur after 2100 in 67% of runs under very high emissions, prompting calls for the IPCC to revise its assessment in AR7.
In October 2024, 44 climate scientists published an open letter stating that according to recent studies, the risk of AMOC collapse has been greatly underestimated and could occur in the next few decades.
