This market asks whether the Doomsday Clock will be set to fewer than 85 seconds to midnight at any announcement on or before January 2029. The current setting is exactly 85 seconds (set in January 2026), which is the closest to midnight in the Clock's 79-year history. The trajectory from 2024 (90s) to 2025 (89s) to 2026 (85s) shows a pattern of incremental advancement toward midnight. Given this trend and the ongoing geopolitical tensions, nuclear proliferation concerns, climate change, and emerging AI threats cited by the Bulletin, the probability of the Clock moving to 84 seconds or less by January 2029 appears reasonably high. The key uncertainty is whether the Bulletin will push below the historic 85-second threshold, or maintain it as a symbolic floor.
Clock moved to 85 seconds to midnight—the closest ever in 79-year history—citing failure of leadership, great power competition, and escalating global threats
Clock moved to 89 seconds to midnight—the closest ever—citing continued global conflicts, nuclear proliferation, climate change, and AI disinformation
Clock remains at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest ever at that time, citing ongoing Ukraine war, Middle East conflict, climate crisis, and AI risks
