Will the Arctic September sea-ice minimum fall below 3.5 million square kilometers in any year through 2032?

This market asks whether the Arctic September sea-ice minimum will fall below 3.5 million km² in any year from 2026 through 2032 — the commonly used "ice-free" threshold. Recent Septembers have been 4.28 million km² (2024, 7th lowest) and 4.60 million km² (2025, 10th lowest), with the last 19 years constituting the lowest 19 extents on record. However, scientists project an ice-free Arctic could occur as early as 2033-2037 under high emissions, with some studies placing 80% probability by the mid-2030s. The gap from current levels (~4.3-4.6M km²) to 3.5M is roughly 0.8-1.1M km² — significant but potentially achievable in the remaining years. External markets currently price roughly 47.5% chance of 2026 falling below 4M km², suggesting meaningful decline risk. Given the 7-year window and scientific projections trending toward the early-to-mid 2030s, the probability of at least one year crossing 3.5M by 2032 appears modest but non-trivial.