This market asks whether global insured losses from natural catastrophes will exceed $200 billion in any single calendar year from 2026 through 2030, as reported by Swiss Re (sigma) or Munich Re. Recent data shows losses of $137 billion in 2024 and $107 billion in 2025—the latter below trend due to no major US hurricane landfall. Swiss Re's on-trend projection forecasts $148 billion in 2026 and $186 billion by 2030, implying the baseline path stays just under the $200 billion threshold through the horizon. However, peak-loss scenarios (1-in-10 probability) could drive losses to $320 billion in 2026 or $400 billion by 2030, and the market resolves YES if any single year crosses $200B. With five independent chances across 2026-2030 and a long-term 5-7% annual growth trend, the probability of at least one year exceeding $200B is meaningful but far from certain, supporting a quote in the mid-40s.
If 5-7% annual real growth trend continues, on-trend losses would reach USD 148 billion in 2026 and USD 186 billion by 2030; peak-loss scenarios could hit USD 400 billion by 2030
Despite below-trend losses due to no major US hurricane landfall, 2025 remained elevated driven by wildfires and severe convective storms
January 2025 wildfires in Palisades and Eaton became the costliest wildfire disaster on record globally, driven by Santa Ana winds, drought, and dense WUI development
