This market asks whether Trump will cease holding the presidency before January 20, 2029 due to death, resignation, removal, or 25th Amendment declaration. External prediction markets currently price the probability of Trump completing his full term at approximately 78%, implying roughly a 22% chance he does not complete the term — this is the anchor for the quote. Recent Mycelium trading has been thin at 8 cents, suggesting the platform may be underpricing the risk relative to external consensus. No new developments since the last repricing warrant moving away from the external anchor. The four paths to a YES resolution (25th Amendment removal, impeachment, resignation, death) each face extremely high political or procedural barriers, but the external market assigns meaningful probability to at least one materializing.
Rosie O'Donnell called for Trump's removal via the 25th Amendment after the White House shared an AI-generated video mocking her. She said 'He's quite ill — and getting worse daily.'
Psychiatrist Dr. Bandy Lee renewed calls for Trump's removal, citing his 'dangerousness' and the Iran war. She noted that while some senators privately agreed, none would publicly support removal due to what she called 'Trump Contagion.'
53% of Americans believe there are grounds to impeach Trump, with 40% saying 'yes, definitely.' 30% cited corruption, 30% abuse of power, and 20% the war in Iran as reasons.
Symbolic resolution with no legal effect but politically significant, as Trump has advocated for this
Video showed disoriented Trump walking away from group photo op; needed help from Modi to climb a step; Democrats and commentators called it 'Weekend at Bernie's' moment
