Will Donald Trump become unable to complete his current term as president?

This market asks whether Donald Trump will leave office before his term ends on January 20, 2029, through death, resignation, removal via the 25th Amendment, or impeachment conviction. The research shows Trump, now 79 and turning 80, was recently declared in "excellent health" by his White House physician with strong cognitive scores. The 25th Amendment has never been used to remove a president in U.S. history and faces extremely high barriers—it requires VP Vance plus a majority of Cabinet to act, and Congress needs a 2/3 vote in both houses to sustain removal. Trump retains VP Vance's support and controls his Cabinet. Impeachment discussions continue but House Minority Leader Jeffries says Democrats aren't focused on it, and even if they win the House in midterms, conviction would require a 2/3 Senate—highly unlikely given Republican control. External sentiment markets place 8-33% probability on 25th Amendment invocation specifically, but that represents just one pathway to early departure. The combination of Trump's apparent good health, strong institutional support, and the constitutional barriers across all removal mechanisms makes early departure unlikely, though not impossible.