This market asks whether any EU member state will have Council voting rights suspended under Article 7(3) TEU by end of 2028. The threshold is high: it requires the European Council to first make an Article 7(2) determination of "serious and persistent breach," then the Council must suspend voting rights under Article 7(3). Currently, the Article 7 procedure against Poland (triggered 2017) was closed in May 2024 after Poland addressed rule of law concerns. The Hungary procedure (triggered 2018) remains in the Article 7(1) hearing phase with eight hearings held as of May 2025, but has not advanced to the Article 7(2) sanctions phase. No external market specifically prices this exact outcome, but the structural barriers—unanimous European Council approval required, Hungary's ability to block, and lack of political will to advance—make suspension very unlikely before 2028.
European affairs ministers decided to maintain the Article 7 procedure against Hungary, citing persistent rule of law concerns. Eight hearings have been held without advancement to sanctions phase.
Commission closed the Article 7(1) procedure against Poland in May 2024 after concluding there was no longer a clear risk of serious breach following Poland's action plan and commitments on justice reforms.
