This market asks whether a sitting U.S. president will formally invoke the Insurrection Act via proclamation or executive order to deploy active-duty military or federalized National Guard domestically on or before December 31, 2028. President Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act during 2025-2026, specifically regarding Minneapolis protests against ICE operations and to override Democratic governors in Oregon and Illinois who opposed National Guard deployments. Vice President JD Vance has confirmed the White House is actively considering invoking the Act, stating Trump is "looking at all his options." Court challenges to Trump's National Guard deployments are pending, and Congress has introduced S.2070 to limit presidential authority. The 2028 presidential race features VP JD Vance and Marco Rubio as Republican frontrunners, both of whom have supported Trump's use of military force domestically. No external prediction market exists specifically for Insurrection Act invocation, so the quote reflects the research assessment that the current president's repeated threats and active consideration create a meaningful probability of actual invocation within the resolution window.
President Trump threatened in January 2026 to invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy federal military forces to Minneapolis to quell protests against ICE operations, following the fatal shooting of protester Renee Good by an ICE officer.
Trump's attempts to deploy National Guard troops to Portland, Oregon and Chicago, Illinois over Democratic governors' objections have been temporarily blocked by federal courts while litigation proceeds.
Senate Democrats introduced S.2070 to limit presidential authority under the Insurrection Act, requiring congressional consultation, proclamation to disperse, and a 7-day sunset clause.
