This market asks whether any G7 government will experience a sovereign default (missed payment or rating-agency declaration) or a formally failed bond auction by end of 2028. G7 debt levels are at historic highs: Japan at 204% of GDP, US at 126% and climbing, France at 118%, Italy at 138%. Japan has seen the most acute auction weakness—20-year JGBs saw worst demand since 2012 (bid-to-cover 2.5) and 40-year bonds hit record lows—while the US has had multiple weak Treasury auctions in 2026 with below-average demand. The UK faces pressure from 30-year gilt yields at 28-year highs amid political turmoil. However, no G7 government has yet formally defaulted or had an auction officially fail with bids below the amount offered—the threshold the market measures. External prediction markets show no active market on this specific question, so the quote remains anchored near the prior at 7.
10-year gilt yield above 5.1% (highest since July 2008) as PM Starmer faces leadership challenge after May 2026 local election losses
Multiple weak auctions for 2-year, 5-year, 7-year, 10-year and 30-year bonds with below-average demand and elevated primary dealer absorption
Weakest demand in 10 months with bid-to-cover of 2.2, yields hitting historic highs
Worst auction demand since 2012 with bid-to-cover ratio of 2.5, triggering record yields on 30- and 40-year bonds
